Filling the Swamp?

I have little doubt that President Trump intends to “drain the swamp”….to make a positive difference. But he is going to find it really hard to do.

His first problem is the lack of money. With U.S. public debt at 106% of GDP (compared to 33% when Reagan took office), Trump does not have room to fund his plans via debt. Reagan was also going to drain the swamp, but he failed even though he had a lot more wiggle room economically.  Moreover, the swamp is much more full now than it was in the 1980s.

He wants to build his Mexican Wall, the military, public infrastructure, and spend money on border protection and veterans benefits. Not much room to borrow that money. Yes, borrow….he says he’s cutting taxes, doesn’t he?

His second problem is that his economic plans do not promote prosperity. He seems opposed to free market principles. For example, he has announced that BMWs imported from Mexico will be levied a 35% tariff. What happened to NAFTA?  BMW has pointed out that their largest plant in the world is in South Carolina. So they hold a few cards of their own.

He also is escalating conflict with China. His recognition of Taiwan, while reasonable, will cause a problem with a country that is already tense over the nearby USA military presence.

Third, he has the establishment against him. Some of those people are very powerful. And some of them are dangerous. They started by fanning the Russian election interference story so as to invalidate his presidency.

In short, I will not be surprised to see the Trump administration crash and burn. I hope not, because I think the USA needs a disruptive president rather than a business as usual one.  But I think the swamp is about to get a whole lot deeper.